000 AXNT20 KNHC 040006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 806 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Earl was upgraded to a category one hurricane at 2100 UTC after a NOAA hurricane hunter measured maximum sustained wind speed of 65 kt and wind gusts to 80 kt. Hurricane Earl is centered near 17.1N 86.0W or about 59 nm NE of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are S of 21N W of 80W, including Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and the Yucatan Peninsula. The rainbands of Earl are also affecting the rest of Central America and SW Caribbean waters W of 78W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 08N-18N with axis near 37W, moving W at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. Even though the wave is in a favorable deep layer wind shear region, Saharan dry air and dust are in the wave environment, thus hindering the development of deep convection. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show dry air wrapping the northern and western sides of the wave axis. Isolated showers are possible from 10N-18N between 34W and 46W. Tropical wave extends from 11N-20N with axis near 52W, moving W at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show the wave is embedded in a very moist environment that along with a middle level diffluent environment support scattered showers west of the axis from 15N-21N between 51W and 56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from near 14N17W to 12N30W to 08N40W to 12N50W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 02N-11N between 37W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered S of Mississippi over the N Gulf near 29N87W and provides much of the Gulf with E-NE flow aloft maintaining mostly fair conditions for a majority of the basin tonight. However...given instability and possible embedded weak areas of diffluence in the ridging...isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the central Gulf waters from 22N-27N between 86W and 92W. At the surface...weak ridging is N of 24N generating light to occasional moderate NE to E winds. Hurricane Earl will make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday morning tracking W-NW into the far southern SW Gulf waters by Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary focus in the basin is Hurricane Earl currently tracking W across the NW Caribbean. See the special features section for more details. For wind information associated with Earl see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Elsewhere...fresh to strong trades trail to the east of Earl between 68W-81W due to the pressure gradient between high pressure anchored to the north across the SW North Atlc region and low pressure across northern South America. Trades decrease gradually E of 68W into moderate to fresh breeze levels as mostly clear skies prevail tonight. The exception is S of 14N E of 69W where scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are observed. Earl is expected to make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday morning bringing numerous showers and scattered tstms...and potentially localized flooding and mud slides to portions of Honduras...Guatemala...Belize...El Salvador and the Yucatan peninsula during the remainder of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered N-NE of the Island over SW N Atlc waters. The upper low extends a trough SW to the north-central Caribbean that along with upper ridging W of it generate diffluent flow to support cloudiness and possible isolated showers across Hispaniola tonight. Model guidance indicate weather conditions are going to improve by Thu morning due in part to the presence of strong deep layer wind shear in the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic ocean continues under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1026 mb highs S-SW of the Azores Islands. Little change expected the next two days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS