000 AXNT20 KNHC 031743 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.8N 85.6W at 03/1800 UTC or about 50 nm ESE of Isla Roatan Honduras and about 160 nm ESE of Belize City Belize moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 12N-20N between 80W-89W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 09N35W to 18N34W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 13N. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 34W-43W. Tropical wave extends from 12N49W to 20N48W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing as depicted in global model analyses between 45W-53W with a low-level circulation center focused on a 1014 mb low centered along the wave axis near 14N. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 14N-19N between 49W-55W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from near 14N21W to 12N30W to 08N37W to 12N48W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N51W to 09N61W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...isolated moderate convection is from 09N-11N between 57W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the lower Mississippi River valley near 31N90W that is providing much of the Gulf with E-NE flow aloft maintaining mostly fair conditions for a majority of the basin this afternoon. However...given instability and possible embedded weak areas of diffluence in the ridging...isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the eastern Gulf waters N of 23N E of 90W and scattered showers and tstms across the north-central coast N of 28N between 87W-93W. At the surface...a ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region along 29N/30N to eastern Texas generating light to occasional moderate NE to E winds. Little change is expected through Wednesday night in the synoptic pattern. Tropical Storm Earl will approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize Wednesday night into Thursday morning tracking W-NW into the far southern SW Gulf waters by Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary focus is Tropical Storm Earl currently tracking W across the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere...fresh to strong trades trail to the east of Earl between 68W-80W due to the pressure gradient between high pressure anchored to the north across the SW North Atlc region and low pressure across northern South America. Trades decrease gradually E of 70W into moderate to fresh breeze levels as mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon. Earl is expected to approach the coast of Belize on Wednesday night bringing numerous showers and scattered tstms...and potentially localized flooding and mud slides to portions of Honduras... Guatemala...Belize...and the Yucatan peninsula during the remainder of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...fair weather and mostly clear skies prevail and are expected during the next 24 to 48 hours as stable upper level NW flow continues. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Weak middle to upper level troughing is focused over the southern Florida peninsula and Florida Straits generating isolated showers and tstms across the SW North Atlc waters generally S of 27N W of 78W this afternoon. To the north...a frontal boundary extends offshore of the Carolinas and continues to support scattered showers and tstms from 30N to the front along 34N generally W of 70W. Otherwise...the remainder of the region is under the influence of a surface ridge with axis extending along 28N/29N to the Florida peninsula. Farther east...the ridge broadens covering much of the eastern and central Atlc discussion waters north of 20N anchored by a 1028 mb high centered S of the Azores near 35N28W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN