000 AXNT20 KNHC 030004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.4N 81.5W at 02/2100 UTC or about 174 nm S of Grand Cayman moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection and scattered tstms are from 14N-19N between 77W-83W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N-19N with axis near 28W, moving W at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. Even though the wave is in a favorable deep layer wind shear environment, Saharan dry air and dust are engulfing the wave, thus hindering the development of deep convection. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show dry air intrusion west of the wave axis. Isolated showers are possible from 10N-18N between 26W and 32W. Tropical wave extends from 12N-20N with axis near 44W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral deep layer wind shear while enhanced Meteosat imagery show some dry air east of its axis. However, CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show the wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment that along with a diffluent environment aloft west of its axis support scattered showers from 15N-19N between 44W and 49W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from near 16N16W to 11N28W to 12N40W to 10N50W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 31W-38W and from 04N-11N between 41W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the lower Mississippi River valley near 31N89W, which is providing much of the Gulf with NE to E flow aloft maintaining an overall stable environment. An upper level low over the western Bay of Campeche supports isolated showers in the SW basin S of 21N W of 93W. On the SE basin, an elongated upper level low support heavy showers and tstms across southern Florida, the Florida straits and the Yucatan Channel. Heavy showers and tstms are also over the Yucatan Peninsula extending 60 nm off the coastline. This convection is associated with the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Earl, which is currently located in the NW Caribbean. See special features for more details. At the surface...a ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region along 25N to the Texas coast generating light to moderate NE to E winds. Tropical Storm Earl will approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize by Wednesday night tracking W-NW into the SW Gulf waters by Thursday night into Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary focus is Tropical Storm Earl currently tracking W across the NW Caribbean. See special features section for more details on Earl. Rainbands from Earl are generating heavy showers and scattered tstms W of 85W. In the SW basin, a 1010 mb low centered near 10N78W connects with the monsoon trough and support scattered to isolated showers S of 11N. For wind information associated with Earl see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are from 12.5N to 20N between 71W and 80W with seas to 10 ft. Moderate trades are east of 71W. Earl is expected to approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize by Wednesday night bringing numerous showers and scattered tstms...and potentially localized flooding and mud slides to portions of Honduras...Guatemala...Belize...and the Yucatan peninsula during the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...fair weather and mostly clear skies prevail and are expected to continue tonight as an upper level ridge is in the vicinity of the island providing strong dry air subsidence. Dust and hazy conditions are also being reported across the Island. On Wednesday, a middle level low will move across Hispaniola and is expected to support showers during the afternoon and evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak upper level low is centered E of central Florida extending SW to the SE Gulf of Mexico. This low aloft along with abundant moisture in the far SW Atlc support scattered showers and tstms S of 29N W of 75W and within 60 nm off the norther coast of Cuba. Otherwise, the remainder of the region is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered SW of the Azores Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS