000 AXNT20 KNHC 021756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.3N 80.8W at 02/1800 UTC or about 185 nm S of Grand Cayman moving W at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 14N-21N between 75W-81W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 11N26W to 18N24W moving W at 20 kt. Wave coincides with a 700 mb low centered near 09N27W embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis and troughing between 21W-34W. Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis near 13N...however a stronger complex of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is farther SW from 07N-12N between 27W- 33W. Tropical wave extends from 12N44W to 19N42W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing as depicted in global model analyses between 40W-52W. Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-17N between 42W-45W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from near 11N23W to 11N34W to 13N43W to 09N52W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N52W to 08N59W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-14N between 35W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the lower Mississippi River valley near 33N89W that is providing much of the Gulf with NE to E flow aloft maintaining an overall stable environment. However...given instability and possible embedded weak areas of diffluence in the ridging...isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the SE Gulf S of 27N E of 84W and across the NE and north-central coast N of 29N between 82W-94W. At the surface...a ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region along 28N/29N to the Texas coast generating light to moderate NE to E winds. Little change is expected through Wednesday night in the synoptic pattern. Tropical Storm Earl will approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize by Wednesday night tracking W-NW into the SW Gulf waters by Thursday night into Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary focus is Tropical Storm Earl currently tracking W across the western Caribbean. Elsewhere...fresh to strong trades trail to the east of Earl between 67W-78W due to the pressure gradient and high pressure anchored to the north across the SW North Atlc region. Trades decrease E of 67W into moderate to fresh breeze levels as mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon. Earl is expected to approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize by Wednesday night bringing numerous showers and scattered tstms...and potentially localized flooding and mud slides to portions of Honduras...Guatemala...Belize...and the Yucatan peninsula during the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently...fair weather and mostly clear skies prevail and are expected during the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper level ridge is anchored over the island near 19N71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak upper level low is centered north of the NW Bahamas near 28N78W with a trough axis extending S-SW to a broad base over western Cuba. Middle to upper level instability and lifting dynamics are sufficient to generate isolated showers and tstms across the SW North Atlc waters generally W of 75W this afternoon. Otherwise...the remainder of the region is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N69W. Farther east...the ridge broadens covering much of the eastern and central Atlc discussion waters north of 20N anchored by a 1030 mb high centered S of the Azores near 35N26W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN