000 AXNT20 KNHC 020538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A gale warning has been issued for the central Caribbean within 90 nm NE semicircle, and within 45 nm SW semicircle of 16.5N75W. Winds are 30 to 40 kt, and seas 9 TO 14 ft. A closed cyclonic circulation at the surface is presently lacking, thus a tropical storm warning has not been issued at this time. The tropical wave is moving west across the Caribbean basin at 18 kt. The tropical wave extends from 23N75W to 10N75W. Numerous strong convection is mostly SE of Jamaica from 15N-18N between 74W-78W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere over Hispaniola, Cuba, and the NW Caribbean. The potential exists for a tropical storm to form within the next 48 hours. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast...that is listed under the following links...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the following area: CANARIAS. TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N21W to 06N22W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is west of the wave axis from 08N-12N between 23W-29W. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 18N39W to 07N41W moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 36W-45W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 15N17W to 11N30W to 13N40W to 10N46W where the ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of South America at 08N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-10N between 47W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along 30N from N florida to E Texas. 10-15 kt SE winds are noted over the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over S Florida and the Straits of Florida from 23N-27N E of 83W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche S of 20N. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered over the N Gulf near 30N90W. A small upper level low is centered N of the Bahamas near 29N78W enhancing the nocturnal convection over S Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of convection over the SE Gulf, Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula due to the approaching tropical Wave. CARIBBEAN SEA... The prime focus tonight is the strong tropical wave and gale moving through the central Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 10- 25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with 10 kt winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over N Colombia and the SW Caribbean from 06N-11N between 74W-77W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered S of Jamaica near 17N76W. Expect the tropical wave/ gale to be the dominate weather producer over the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently, scattered showers linger over Hispaniola, especially over Haiti. Expect gradual clearing over Hispaniola over the next 24 hours as the tropical wave moves west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is north of the Bahamas from 27N- 30N between 75W-78W mostly due the small upper level low centered near 29N78W. A 1023 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N62W. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Also of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 25N51W. Expect the tropical waves to move west with convection for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa