000 AXNT20 KNHC 011050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A gale warning has been issued for the central Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 66W and 69W with E TO SE winds 25 to 35 kt, and seas 8 TO 11 ft. An ASCAT scatterometer pass at 0120 UTC over a strong tropical wave indicated gale force winds. A closed cyclonic circulation at the surface is presently lacking, thus a tropical storm warning has not been issued at this time. The tropical wave is moving west across the Caribbean basin at 18 kt. The tropical wave extends from 20N69W to 11N69W. Numerous strong convection is mostly south of Hispaniola from 14N-19N between 66W-72W. Scattered showers are elsewhere over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and E Cuba. The potential exists for a tropical storm to form today or Tuesday. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast...that is listed under the following links...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the following areas: AGADIR and CANARIAS. TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 18N36W to 07N37W moving west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 38W-41W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N20W to 13N30W to 12N37W to 08N47W where the ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of South America at 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough along the coast of western Africa from 06N-12N between 14W-26W. Similar convection is from 06N-10N between 41W- 59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along 30N from N florida to E Texas. 10-15 kt SE winds are noted over the Gulf. Scattered showers remain over the E Gulf of Mexico and W Cuba from 22N-30N E of 91W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N92W. A small upper level low is centered N of the Bahamas near 30N77W. Abundant upper level moisture is over the E Gulf E of 92W. Strong subsidence is over the W Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface winds and convection to increase over W Cuba, the Straits of Florida, and the SE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The prime focus today is the strong tropical wave and gale moving through the central Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 10- 25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with 25 kt winds along the coast of N Colombia and 10 kt winds over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-11N between 77W-84W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N70W. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean N of 14N between 80W-90W. Expect the tropical wave/ gale to be the dominate weather producer over the Caribbean Sea for the next three days. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently, numerous strong convection is over S Hispaniola with scattered showers elsewhere. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 21N-26N between 73W-77W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N58W. A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic along 37W. See above. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered N of the Bahamas near 30N77W. Further east, a large upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 25N48W. Expect the tropical wave along 37W to move west with convection, while a new tropical wave over W Africa along 15W approaches the Tropical Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa