000 AXNT20 KNHC 312342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong tropical wave rapidly moving across the Caribbean basin is generating a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. The tropical wave extends from 21N65W through the Virgin Islands to a 1010 mb low near 15N65W to 12N64W. Although some gradual development of this system is possible during the next day or so, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. However, locally heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico are expected through tonight. Please the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 35W- 36W with a 1011 mb low along the wave near 11N. Wave and low are moving west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W and continues along 13N27W through the 1011 mb low near 11N36W 9N39W to 8N45W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 8N57W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 180 nm along the coast of Africa from 7N-14N and from 5N-7N between 38W-43W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are within 210 nm north of the monsoon trough between 34W-44W and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored over the northwest Gulf near 28N92W extending a ridge axis southwest to inland over Mexico near Tampico. An inverted upper trough is over the west Caribbean into the west Atlantic covering the east Gulf east of 88W and is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms dotting the east Gulf east of 90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are inland over the Florida peninsula and the north Gulf coast east of Texas and within 60 nm along the coastline. Similar showers and thunderstorms have developed inland over the Yucatan peninsula and are moving west into the east Bay of Campeche within 60 nm along the coast. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida to a 1018 mb high near 27N90W continuing to the Texas coast. The surface ridge will persist through midweek. A surface trough will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening then dissipate in the southwest Gulf each morning through midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... The prime focus this evening is the strong tropical wave moving through the east Caribbean with strong winds, building seas, and accompanying heavy rains. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-17N between 63W-68W and elsewhere north of 16N across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola between 60W-73W. These conditions should reach Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday. An inverted upper trough extends from over Central America across the central Cuba into the west Atlantic covering the Caribbean west of 79W and supporting a surface trough that extends from 22N82W to 17N84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-17N between 81W-87W with isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 17N to over Cuba between 80W-87W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W along the coast of Panama near 9N79W to across Costa Rica near 9N83W generating clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N east of 78W to inland over Colombia. The winds and seas associated with the tropical wave will shift into the Central Caribbean Monday and into the west Caribbean by midweek. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the Dominican Republic with isolated showers moving over Haiti. Showers and thunderstorms will spread west tonight encompassing the island through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An inverted upper trough extends from the west Caribbean across central Cuba into the west Atlantic to 32N73W generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from 26N-29N between 77W-80W with isolated showers south of 26N west of 74W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 23N across the Greater Antilles between 67W-74W and south of 20N between between 60W-67W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high over the Azores with a ridge axis extending through 32N43W to a 1025 mb high near 31N56W continuing along 29N72W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will persist through midweek. The tropical wave over the east Caribbean will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles through Tuesday accompanied by strong winds and building seas that will shift west across the Bahamas late tonight into Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW