000 AXNT20 KNHC 310605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N32W to a 1009 mb low near 12N31W. Wave and low are moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb low as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 8N-15N between 30W-36W. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 58W from 11N-21N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are west of the wave axis over the E Caribbean from 12N-20N between 58W-65W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W to the 1009 mb low near 12N31W to 08N42W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 10N50W to 12N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection in vicinity of the monsoon trough along the coast of western Africa from 12N-18N between 15W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N86W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are noted around the high. Scattered showers remain over the SE Gulf of Mexico and W Cuba from 22N- 27N between 81W-85W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N87W. Strong subsidence is over the central Gulf with upper level moisture elsewhere. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to be replaced by a surface ridge. Also expect an upper level low presently over the the Bahamas to advect over to S Florida with increased convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles is producing convection over the E Caribbean. See above. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds just south of Cuba. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 10N-12N between 75W-84W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Bahamas near 23N76W. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba N of 21N between 76W-79W. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the central Caribbean north of 15N between 72W-88W. Expect the tropical wave to be the dominate weather producer over the Caribbean Sea for the next four days. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently, isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are over Hispaniola. The tropical wave just E of the Lesser Antilles will produce convection over Hispaniola tonight through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 25N79W to 21N79W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough axis. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N47W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Bahamas near 23N76W. An upper level high is centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N65W. Another upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N42W. Expect the Bahama upper level low to move to S Florida in 24 hours with convection. Also expect the tropical waves to move west with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA