000 AXNT20 KNHC 301739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 12N28W to 18N31W moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis where global model data indicates a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity. The wave itself coincides with a low to mid level trough extending northward to 18N between 26W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 25W-33W. Tropical wave extends from 12N53W to 22N52W moving W at 25-30 kt. The wave coincides with a relatively broad and amplified 700 mb trough between 48W-60W and copious deep layer moisture noted in SSMI Total Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer data also indicates associated surface troughing with a relatively large area of fresh to strong trades generally from 14N-23N between 49W-62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-20N between 52W-63W...including portions of the Lesser Antilles. As this wave moves W during the next several days...the strong trades accompanied by potentially higher gusts will move across the far northern Caribbean Sea waters and the SW North Atlc waters north of the Greater Antilles and waters surrounding the Turks and Caicos...SE Bahamas...and eastern and central Cuba creating hazardous boating conditions. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 15N17W to 15N23W to 10N31W to 12N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 12N41W to 12N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-14N between 09W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Divergence aloft on the eastern periphery of upper level trough axis extending along 98W/99W is enhancing scattered showers and tstms across the SW Gulf S of 24N W of 94W. This activity is focused in the vicinity of a surface trough analyzed from 23N96W to 19N97W. In addition...isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the northern half of the basin N of 26N within broad surface ridging anchored by a 1018 mb high centered in the E Gulf near 28N85W. Generally light to occasional moderate anticyclonic breeze conditions prevail...except for locally moderate to fresh winds near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche anticipated to pulse during the evening/overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad and elongated upper level low extends from over the Turks and Caicos islands near 21N73W to 13N77W over the central Caribbean. This is supporting a weak lower to middle level trough axis analyzed from 12N74W to 17N72W moving across the central Caribbean with widely scattered showers and tstms occurring from between 69W-83W...including Hispaniola...Cuba...and Jamaica. Otherwise...fresh to strong trade winds persist across the central Caribbean between 70W-80W and the far NE Caribbean N of 16N E of 67W. Finally...an amplified tropical wave currently along 53W will approach the Lesser Antilles by Saturday night late with fresh to strong winds accompanying the northern extent of the wave across the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... A upper level low currently noted on water vapor imagery over the Windward Passage continues to support a favorable diffluent environment over the region resulting in widely scattered showers and tstms across interior areas of Hispaniola this afternoon and evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from the tropical waves moving across the tropical Atlc portion of the basin...an upper level trough/low is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc near 21N73W providing increased cloudiness and scattered showers and tstms generally S of 28N between 70W-80W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 35N46W. To the east...the parent ridge...a 1029 mb high centered across the NW Azores near 39N31W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN