000 AXNT20 KNHC 291750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical wave extends from 12N23W to 19N26W moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis where global model data indicates a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity. The wave itself coincides with a low to mid level trough extending northward to the immediate west of the Cape Verde islands along 25N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N between 21W-27W. This area has a medium potential for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 11N44W to 20N45W moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave coincides with a relatively broad and amplified 700 mb trough between 40W-52W and copious deep layer moisture noted in SSMI Total Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer data also indicates associated surface troughing with an area of fresh trades on the northern portion of the surface trough from 14N-21N between 43W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-16N between 42W-50W. As this wave moves W during the next several days...the trades accompanied by potentially higher gusts will move across the Atlc waters north of the Greater Antilles and waters surrounding the Turks and Caicos...SE Bahamas...and eastern and central Cuba creating hazardous boating conditions. Tropical wave extends from 09N54W to 14N58W moving W 10-15 kt. The wave remains fairly weak and low amplitude with limited moisture resulting in no significant deep convection at this time. Tropical wave extends from 13N88W to 20N89W moving W-NW at 10-15 kt. The wave is expected to continue on a gradually weakening trend the next 24-36 hours with scattered moderate convection occurring along coastal Nicaragua and Honduras and isolated moderate convection elsewhere from 15N-21N between 85W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N23W to 11N44W to 10N50W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N50W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves...isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 25W- 38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 46W- 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Divergence aloft on the eastern periphery of upper level low centered over the southwest Gulf of Mexico near 22N97W is enhancing isolated showers and tstms across the central waters in the vicinity of 26N90W. Otherwise...surface ridging prevails from the SW North Atlc across Florida into the eastern Gulf. Generally gentle to light flow prevails...except for locally moderate to fresh winds near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and tstms will persist through tonight as the upper level low tracks westward during the next 24 hours...ahead of the northern portion of a tropical wave moving across the Yucatan and Belize currently. The tropical wave will likely enhance the usual evening trough off the western Yucatan tonight and tomorrow night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough extends from over eastern Hispaniola near 19N69W SW to 16N70W to 13N77W. This is supporting a weak lower to mid level trough moving across the eastern Caribbean between 62W-72W with isolated showers and tstms occurring from 12N-17N between 64W-70W. The lower to mid level trough is expected to dampen out as it moves west-northwest during the next 24-36 hours. Otherwise...fresh to strong trade winds persist across the central Caribbean between the tropical wave exiting to the west and approaching deep layer trough. Finally...the amplified tropical wave currently along 44W/45W will approach the Lesser Antilles by Saturday night with fresh to strong winds accompanying the northern extent of the wave across the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... A upper level trough currently noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern portion of the island will likely support scattered showers and tstms across interior areas of Hispaniola this afternoon and evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from the tropical waves moving across the tropical Atlc portion of the basin...a 1019 mb surface high is centered across the SW North Atlc near 26N77W. To the east...another surface ridge prevails extending across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 40N34W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN