000 AXNT20 KNHC 282341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 741 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends from 17N20W to a 1010 mb low near 11N21W. These features are moving west at about 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 7N-14N between 20W-24W. A tropical wave is moving over the central Tropical Atlantic with axis from 18N38W to 10N38W, moving west at about 15 kt over the past 24 hours. A 700 mb trough is depicted by the models between 38W-42W and a surge moisture prevails in the wave's environment as depicted by SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection is observed across the southern portion of the wave south of 15N between 37W- 41W. A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic extending its axis from 17N51W to 10N51W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough south of 16N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a limited surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is observed at this time as the wave as Saharan dust is inhibiting any activity. A tropical wave in the west Caribbean with axis extending from 23N83W to 12N84W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection is observed within this wave affecting the far west Caribbean waters west of 80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 18N16W to 10N24W to a 1011 mb low near 13N35W to 11N44W. The ITCZ begins from that point and continues to 08N56W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and surface lows, isolated convection prevails within 200 nm south of the Monsoon Trough between 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An inverted upper-level trough dominates the western Gulf of Mexico with axis extending from the Bay of Campeche to 30N93W. This feature is supporting isolated convection across the whole basin. Scattered moderate convection is moving from the Yucatan Peninsula to the west reaching the Bay of Campeche. This activity is mostly generated by diurnal heating. At the surface, a 1019 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic extending its ridge across the northern portion of the basin. A surface trough extends from 29N90W to 25N90W supporting isolated moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the Gulf waters. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface ridge to persist. The upper level trough will move west enhancing convection across the western Gulf. A thermal trough will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. The eastern portion of the upper-level trough that extends across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered convection across the western Caribbean in combination with the tropical wave mainly west of 80W. The Monsoon Trough extends north of Panama with isolated convection south 10N between 78W-83W. Fair weather prevails across the central and east Caribbean as Saharan dust and dry air dominate these areas. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin with the strongest ones prevailing just north of Colombia south of 16N between 69W-76W. The tropical wave to continue moving west during the next 24 hours with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by late Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the western portion of the island at this time induced by diurnal heating. This weather pattern will continue through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A 1019 mb surface high is centered across the west Atlantic near 28N76W. To the east, another surface ridge prevails extending across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high near 42N31W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA