000 AXNT20 KNHC 272346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends from 15N18W to 07N19W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 12 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 12N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within broad area of abundant moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 12W-21W. A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands with axis from 18N32W to 10N30W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the southern portion of the wave mainly south of 12N between 26W-32W. A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends from 17N44W to 10N45W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. No significant convection is related to this wave as a Saharan airmass prevails in its environment inhibiting any activity. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis extending from 21N76W to 12N77W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture north of 15N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across the northern portion of the wave affecting eastern Cuba and Jamaica north of 17N between 75W-79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 19N16W and continues to 09N48W where the ITCZ begins and continues to South America near 10N61W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, isolated showers are observed within 100 nm south of the Monsoon Trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An inverted upper-level trough dominates the Gulf of Mexico with axis extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to near 30N89W. This feature is supporting isolated moderate convection across the whole basin. At the surface, a 1019 mb high is centered over northern Florida near 30N83W extending its ridge across the northern portion of the basin. A surface trough prevails across the Bay of Campeche supporting scattered moderate convection mainly west of 96W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the Gulf waters. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface ridge to persist. The upper level trough will move west enhancing convection across the western Gulf. A thermal trough will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. The eastern portion of the upper-level trough that extends across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting isolated convection across the western Caribbean mainly west of 83W. The Monsoon Trough extends north of Panama with scattered moderate convection south 10N between 78W-83W. Aside from the convection generating by the tropical wave across Cuba, Jamaica and their adjacent waters, fair weather prevails across the central and east Caribbean as Saharan dust and dry air dominate these areas. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin with the strongest ones prevailing just north of Colombia south of 16N between 69W-76W. The tropical wave to continue moving west during the next 24 hours with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by late Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the western portion of the island at this time induced by diurnal heating. This weather pattern will continue through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A 1020 mb surface high is centered across the west Atlantic near 28N74W. To the east, a stationary front was analyzed from 28N62W to 32N54W. Isolated convection is observed along this boundary. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1032 mb high near 42N26W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA