000 AXNT20 KNHC 271741 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...correction for satellite time NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along 15W/16W from 7N to inland over Africa moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 6 hours. The wave was relocated based on latest scatterometer pass at 27/1120 UTC. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 12N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 5N-10N between 11W-20W and from 14N-17N between 27W-29W. Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands extends along 28W/29W from 10N-19N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 8N-13N between 24W-34W. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 42W from 10N-18N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moderate moisture north of 12N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection or shower activity. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 73W from 12N-22N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture north of 15N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm east and 120 nm west of the wave axis north of 17N across the Greater Antilles to 23N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 19N16W and continues along 15N18W 12N31W 8N41W to 7N47W where the ITCZ begins and continues to South America near 8N59W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are over the Cape Verde Islands from 14N-18N between 23W-26W and from 4N-9N between 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An inverted upper trough dominates the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon extending from the Yucatan peninsula to the lower Mississippi Valley. An upper ridge extends across Mexico and Texas to the west Gulf coast while a second upper ridge extends from the west Atlantic to over Florida. This is a providing a diffluent environment to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N west of 91W to inland over Louisiana and Texas with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf from 23N-27N between 81W- 87W including the Florida Keys. A surface trough is in the southwest Gulf extending along 94W south of 23N to inland over south Mexico enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90/120 nm of line from 24N93W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida to 28N92W. The surface ridge will persist into the weekend. A thermal trough will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The inverted upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico covers the west Caribbean west of 84W while an upper trough over the central Atlantic extends south over the east Caribbean east of 72W. This is allowing the upper ridge over the west Atlantic to extend south over the central Caribbean between the upper troughs. This scenario is providing a diffluent environment across the north Caribbean to generate clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 20N west of 80W to over Cuba and the northeast Yucatan peninsula including the Yucatan Channel. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia south of Panama generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 14N west of 82W and south of 10N west of 79W to inland over Panama to Nicaragua. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean into the weekend. The tropical wave will move into the west Caribbean Thursday, then over Central America Thursday night. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean late Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms developing across the island this afternoon. The tropical wave will move away from the island tonight. Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge anchored north of the discussion area near 33N72W dominates the west Atlantic and extends south over the Central Caribbean. The activity over the south Bahama islands to over east Cuba is associated with the tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high near 27N70W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough over the central Atlantic extends south to over the east Caribbean and is supporting a stationary front to 31N54W where it dissipates along 28N58W to 27N63W. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the front. The upper level scenario is proving a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 27N-31N between 66W-71W. A surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high north- northeast of the Azores. West Atlantic surface ridge will persist into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the north coast of Hispaniola each evening through the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW