000 AXNT20 KNHC 261804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through WWWW UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23N from 9N-17N moving west moving west near 10 kt over the past 12 hours. The latest scatterometer pass indicates the low is no longer on the surface. There is a mid level low observed on the visible satellite imagery. Wave coincides with a 700 mb low as depicted in the global models and within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 9N-13N between 20w- 26W. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 34W/35W from 9N-18N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The latest scatterometer pass and visible satellite imagery indicates the low is no longer on the surface. Wave coincides with a 700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection or shower activity. Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 65W/66W from 11n-22N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moisture north of 15N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm east and 120 nm west of the wave axis north of the Greater Antilles to 22N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 17N16W and continues along 12N22W 13N28W 10N37W to 8N48W where the ITCZ begins and continues to South America near 8N59W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 3N-8N between 35W-42W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are from 5N-9N east of 18W to the coast of Africa. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge anchored over west Texas extends a ridge axis southeast across the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel. An upper low is centered along the Louisiana coast near Atchafalaya Bay extending an upper trough southeast to 28N85W and is supporting a surface trough that extends from Mobile Bay, Alabama through a weakening 1013 mb low near 30N89W to off the Texas coast near 28N96W. This is generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from 26N-29N between 90W-96W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 27N west of 96W to inland over Texas and north of a line from Apalachicola, Florida to 27N90W. A shortwave upper trough extends along the coast of Mexico from Tuxpan to just west of Tampico generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm along the coast from Tuxpan to Cabo Rojo. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms cover the Straits of Florida south of the Florida Keys east of 83W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic to over Florida ans the far east Gulf of Mexico. The surface trough and upper trough will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms over the northwest and north- central Gulf through tonight. The surface ridge will build west across the Gulf tonight through Saturday night. A thermal trough will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted upper trough extends from over Central America near 16N87W west to over the far southeast Gulf of Mexico covering the west Caribbean west of 78W. This is generating clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 18N westof74W to over Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia south of Panama generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm along the coast of Panama to Nicaragua south of 12N west of 80W. Isolated showers are possible over the east Caribbean within 180 nm either side of the tropical wave. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through the end of the week. The tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean Wednesday, the west Caribbean Thursday, then over Central America Thursday night. Thew next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving inland over the east portion of the Dominican Republic this afternoon. This activity is associated with the tropical wave moving through the east Caribbean. The tropical wave will move across the island through Wednesday. The showers and thunderstorms will spread west across the island through this evening and persist through Wednesday with skies clearing Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge anchored along the coast of North Carolina extends over the west Atlantic west of 64W except in the far southwest Atlantic where an inverted upper trough extends across west Cuba south of 25N west of 76W. This upper trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 25N between 76W-80W. A narrow upper trough is north of the 30N between 53W-58W supporting a stationary front that extends through 32N54W to 29N59W then dissipates to 28N63W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm southeast of the entire front. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic with a surface ridge extending from a 1031 mb high northwest of the Azores through 32N45W south of the above front to a 1021 mb high near 27N67W then continuing west to over Florida. Surface ridge will persist through Thursday night becoming stronger late in the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the north coast of Hispaniola each evening through midweek. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW