000 AXNT20 KNHC 261010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 610 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic from 09N-19N with axis near 22W, forecast to move at 10-15 kt within the next 24 hours. Scatterometer data show there is a low center associated with the wave with pressure of 1010 mb. Meteosat composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust engulfing the northern wave environment. A surge of moderate moist air from surface to 850 mb and divergent flow in the middle to upper levels support an elongated cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N-13N between 18W and 25W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 09N-18N with axis near 34W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show moderate moist from the surface to 850 mb associated with this wave and global model guidance show a low at 700 mb coinciding with the wave axis location. The latest scatterometer pass show that the low is now reflected at the surface with a pressure of 1011 mb near 12N34W. Even though there is a divergent environment at the upper levels, the presence of abundant Saharan dry air and dust seems to hinder convection at the time. A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean from 11N-22N with axis near 63W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is associated with a surge of moderate moisture from the surface to 850 mb, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Isolated showers are possible across the Lesser Antilles and across the basin E of 67E. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 15N17W and then continues to a 1010 mb low near 13N22W to a 1011 mb low near 12N34W SW to 06N48W. The ITCZ begins near 06N48W and continues west to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N E of 30W and from 0N-07N between 30W and 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad middle level low centered near 27N92W covers most of the basin and supports a 1012 mb low over SE Louisiana with an associated surface trough extending from 30N88W to the low center near 29N90W to 28N92W. Scatterometer data show S to SW moderate to fresh winds N of 26N E of the low while surface observations show moderate to fresh N to NW flow within 90 nm W of the low center. Instability generated by the middle and surface lows along with widespread moderate moisture across the basin support scattered showers N of 23N between 86W and 95W. Clusters of heavy showers and tstms are just NW of the Yucatan Channel quickly moving W-NW and extending to the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche, a surface trough S of 22N along 92W support isolated showers S of 21N. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120 nm off the W coast of Florida from 24N to 24N, quickly moving W-NW. Otherwise, weak surface ridging prevails E of 86W. Expect for the surface low and trough to dissipate within the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad inverted upper-level trough covers the basin W of 76W with an embedded W to E elongated low just S of Cuba that supports isolated heavy showers and tstms over the southern Island adjacent waters and elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. A shortwave upper trough is across the central Caribbean where the remnants of a former surface trough support passing showers across Hispaniola and the Windward passage. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough support scattered showers and tstms within 120 nm of the coast of northern Panama and Costa Rica. A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean where it generates isolated showers E of 67W. The wave also support scattered showers and tstms across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and mainly northern adjacent waters. See the tropical waves section above for further details. Scatterometer data depict fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin S of 14N and moderate trades elsewhere. Showers will continue across Puerto Rico and will increase across Hispaniola today as the wave continue to move westward. ...HISPANIOLA... A shortwave upper trough is across the central Caribbean where the remnants of a former surface trough support passing showers across the Island and the Windward passage. Showers will increase across Hispaniola today as a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean continue to move westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A narrow and elongated upper level trough is in the central Atlc with base extending to 30N between 53W and 59W. The trough aloft supports a dissipating cold front N of the area with tail extending in the discussion area along 30N58W SW to 28N66W. scattered showers and tstms are within 90 nm E of the front N of 28N. A broad surface ridge is across the remainder basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high centered N of the Azores Islands. Expect for the surface ridge to persist through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS