000 AXNT20 KNHC 250604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic from 06N-17N with axis near 29W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is associated with a 1012 mb low centered near 12N29W. Meteosat composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion into the wave environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered moderate S of the low center from 06N-10N between 23W and 33W. A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic from 07N-21N with axis near 54W, moving at 30 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW from the surface to 850 mb show mostly dry air in the wave environment. Meteosat composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment, which is hindering convection at the time. A tropical wave is in the Bay of Campeche S of 20N with axis near 94W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. A cluster of heavy showers and scattered tstms over southern Mexico extends to the Bay of Campeche S of 19N between 92W and 95W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 20N16W and then continues along 14N22W to a 1012 mb low near 12N29W to 07N36W to 07N43W. The ITCZ begins near 07N43W and continues west to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the low pressure center, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N E of 23W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 49W; similar convection is within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between 33W and 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging continue to cover most of the basin N of 21N and provides gentle to moderate return flow. South of 21N, in the Bay of Campeche, a tropical wave is generating heavy showers and scattered tstms S of 19N between 92W and 95W. The latest scatterometer pass show fresh to strong NE winds within 120 nm off the western Yucatan Peninsula. For further information about the wave refer to the tropical waves section above. In the middle levels, a broad low centered over the SW Florida Peninsula covers the basin E of 90W while an inverted trough moves across SW Gulf waters. Divergent flow aloft between these two features along with abundant moisture in the basin support scattered moderate convection from 22N-25N between 87W and 92W. Isolated showers are elsewhere N of 22N between 85W and 95W and S of 27N E of 87W. Expect showers to continue in the Bay of Campeche through Monday near sunrise. A surface trough will develop and prevail in the SW Gulf the next two days with high pressure dominating elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad inverted trough in the upper levels along with shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean support isolated showers and tstms N of 15N W of 76W while farther east the remnants of a former surface trough support similar precipitation activity in the Windward Passage. Isolated showers are also possible for inland Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120 nm off Colombia associated with a 1006 mb low pressure near 09N73W. The gradient between this low and higher pressure in the Atlc extending to the northern Caribbean support fresh to strong winds S of 14N between 68W and 75W. This area of winds will prevail the next two days, increasing in areal coverage before Tuesday sunrise. Strong dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather elsewhere. A tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Monday night. ...HISPANIOLA... The remnants of a former surface trough support isolated showers in the Windward Passage and inland Hispaniola as well as the Mona Passage. Moisture associated with this trough will continue to enhance showers across the Island through early morning Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic waters with no significant convection. Please refer to the waves section above for details. A middle level low centered over SW Florida support scattered showers across the Florida Straits and the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, surface ridging and fair weather dominate elsewhere. No major changes expected in the next two days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS