000 AXNT20 KNHC 241740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 50W from 9N-20N moving west near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defied 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and within a highly amplified surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave over the Yucatan peninsula along 90W/91W south of 21N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moisture that covers all of the Gulf of Mexico as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. Tropical wave that moved inland over south Mexico is no longer generating any activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the east Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 15N22W through a weak 1012 mb low near 13N26W to 8N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N51W to South America near 7N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland and within 30 nm along the coast of Africa from 13N-15N. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 75 nm along the coast of Africa from 8N-13N, within 150 nm of line from 10N23W to 5N36W, and within 120 nm along the coast of South America south of 9N west of 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored over east Texas extending a ridge axis southeast over the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan peninsula covering the Gulf west of 86W. An upper low is centered over south Florida covering the remainder of the Gulf. The upper low is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the gulf from 23N-27N between 83W-88W and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 25N from over florida to the north coast of Cuba east of 83W through the Straits of Florida including the Florida Keys. The upper ridge is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N to inland over the north Gulf coast between 84W-95W. This is leaving the southwest Gulf under clear skies this afternoon. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across Florida to over the east Gulf. The surface ridge will persist through midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over Nicaragua extending a ridge axis into the Caribbean to 15N82W. An inverted upper trough extends from a an upper low along the coast of Colombia near 12N74W across Haiti into the west/central Atlantic. This is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 17N to over the Dominican Republic between 68W-71W, between southwest Haiti and Jamaica, and south of the Cayman Islands within 45 nm of 17.5N82W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica along 8N/9N generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 10N west of 77W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean under mostly clear skies this afternoon. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean that will continue through the midweek. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Monday night, then into the central Caribbean Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the Dominican Republic north of 17N between 68W-71W leaving the remainder of the island under mostly clear skies this afternoon. Afternoon/ evening isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through tonight and Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper low centered over south Florida is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from 23N-28N west of 77W to over the Florida peninsula and including the north Bahama islands. An upper trough is digging south to 30N over central Atlantic generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of the 30N between 60W-65W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic with a surface ridge extending from a 1032 mb high west-northwest of the Azores through 32N48W along 29N61W to a 1019 mb high near 30N78W across Florida to over the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will persist through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the north coast of Hispaniola each evening through midweek. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW