000 AXNT20 KNHC 240603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 05N-20N with axis near 41W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough depicted in global models and is embedded in a dry air environment from the surface to 850 mb as indicated by the CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery. No convection is associated with the wave due in part to the presence of Saharan dry air and dust. A tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula and north Central America from 12N to 21N with axis near 89W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. SSMI TPW imagery show abundant moderate moisture in the wave low to mid level environment. Aloft, divergent flow support scattered to isolated showers over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador as well as the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche south of 22N with axis near 96W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. No convection is associated with the wave at the time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N16W and continues to 12N26W to 07N40W. The ITCZ begins near 07N42W and continues to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N E of 30W and from 04N to 08N between 30W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging covers most of the basin N of 23N and provide gentle to moderate wind. South of 23N, a tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula supporting showers in the Yucatan Channel and eastern Bay of Campeche. A second tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche lacking convection at the time. For further information about the waves refer to the waves section above. In the upper levels, a broad ridge anchored over northern Louisiana provides NE to E flow to the basin, except for the far SE portion of the Gulf where an upper level low centered between Andros and southern Florida generates diffluence aloft to support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 26N E of 85W. The westernmost tropical wave will enter E Mexico by Sunday morning and the wave in the Yucatan Peninsula will move to the Bay of Campeche supporting showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave with axis in the Yucatan Peninsula supports scattered to isolated showers in the Gulf of Honduras. In the remainder NW basin, a diffluent environment aloft generated by a low centered between south Florida and Andros and NE flow over the Gulf of Mexico support scattered to isolated showers N of 18N W of 76W. Similar convection is within 60 nm off the coast of Panama and Costa Rica supported by the presence of the EPAC monsoon trough. Strong dry air subsidence is depicted in water vapor imagery across the remainder basin, which is favoring fair weather. Fresh to strong winds are S of 14N between 72W and 77W. Moderate trades dominate elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong dry air subsidence over the Island maintains fair weather conditions tonight. Shallow moisture associated with a surface trough in the E Caribbean may bring showers Sunday in the afternoon/early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving over central Atlantic waters with no convection. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper level low centered between southern Florida and Andros Island support scattered showers in the Florida Straits and the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates elsewhere. No major changes expected in the next two days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS