000 AXNT20 KNHC 231739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A gale warning is in effect today for the waters of Canarias. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II, or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/ BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Tropical Atlantic with axis from 19N38W to 05N38W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No deep convection is observed at this time as Saharan dust is north of 15N. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and Central America with axis from 20N84W to 10N83W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-16N between 82W-86W. A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche with axis from 21N92W to 12N94W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis over southern Mexico. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N17W and continues to 10N30W to 08N41W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N55W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-12N between 10W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the section above for details. Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the western Atlantic near 35N58W. 5-10 kt SE surface winds are over most of the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over Mississippi near 32N90W. Scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf from 25N-28N between 85W-87W. Scattered showers dots the remainder of the Gulf. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west. Expect little change elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and Central America. Please refer to the section above for details. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are over the central Caribbean south of 17N. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N- 12N between 76W-81W. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered the NW caribbean near 18N86W enhancing convection. Elsewhere, easterly upper level flow is over the central and eastern Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. This pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours as Saharan dust and dry air dominates the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface trough is over the western Atlantic east of the Bahamas from 28N73W to 25N75W. A 1021 mb high centered over the western Atlantic near 35N58W. A large 1032 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near the Azores at 39N33W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered north of the Bahamas near 28N78W enhancing showers. Little change is expected within the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA