000 AXNT20 KNHC 231033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A gale warning is in effect today for the waters of Canarias. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II, or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/ BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 21N36W to 06N37W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Despite this, no deep convection is observed at this time as Saharan dust dominates the area. A tropical wave is moving across western Caribbean with axis from 20N80W to 10N81W, moving west at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed to the west of the wave's axis between 81W-87W enhanced by the presence of an upper-level inverted trough. A tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche with axis from 22N91W to 12N92W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. Isolated moderate convection is observed with this wave affecting southern Mexico as well as the adjacent Pacific waters between 90W-95W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N17W and continues to 09N37W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm south of the Monsoon Trough mainly east of 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered convection. Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft supports isolated convection across the eastern Gulf east of 88W. At the surface, a ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the western Atlantic near 35N61W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing convection over the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging will prevail elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. An inverted upper-level trough extends across Central America through the Gulf of Honduras to over south-central Cuba which combined with the tropical wave is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 80W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by dry air and Saharan dust which is inhibiting deep convection east of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin except south of 16N between 72W-76W where fresh to strong winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. Dry weather will spread across the basin as Saharan dust dominates the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. This pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours as Saharan dust and dry air dominates the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends across the western Atlantic. This feature combined with a diffluent flow just to the east of the trough axis and a surface trough from 28N74W to 26N79W are supporting scattered moderate convection from 21N-30N between 69W-78W. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 39N34W. Little change is expected within the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA