000 AXNT20 KNHC 230536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 20N34W to 10N33W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Despite this, no associated deep convection is observed at this time as Saharan dust dominates the area. A tropical wave is moving across western Caribbean with axis from 20N79W to 10N79W, moving west at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed to the west of the wave's axis enhanced by the presence of an upper-level inverted trough. A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis from 21N90W to 12N90W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. Scattered moderate convection is observed with this wave affecting the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N17W and continues to 07N42W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 04N53W. Isolated convection prevails within 200 nm south of the Monsoon Trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered convection. Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft supports isolated convection across the northeastern Gulf north of 25N and east of 88W. At the surface, a ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 29N85W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing convection over the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. An inverted upper-level trough extends across Central America through the Gulf of Honduras to over central Cuba near 22N80W which combined with the tropical wave is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms between 80W-88W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by dry air and Saharan dust which is inhibiting deep convection east of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin except south of 16N between 72W-76W where fresh to strong winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. Dry weather will spread across the basin as Saharan dust dominates the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the western portion of the island due to daytime heating and orographic lifting. This activity will dissipate overnight. Fair weather will prevail during the next 24 hours as Saharan dust and dry air dominates the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends across the western Atlantic. This feature combined with a diffluent flow just to the east of the trough axis and a surface trough from 31N74W to 28N77W are supporting scattered moderate convection from 22N-28N between 70W-80W. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 41N25W. Little change is expected within the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA