000 AXNT20 KNHC 201105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward between 40W and 50W, and from 10N to 15N between 49W and 57W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from 21N southward, across Haiti, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N to Hispaniola between 66W and 72W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 30 NM to 60 NM on either side of the line from 10N57W 15N62W 20N66W, cutting across the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. A southwestern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 91W, from 21N southward, from the Yucatan Peninsula beyond Guatemala, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N93W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico and in parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 11N22W, and 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from 09N30W to 07N38W and 07N45W in northern sections of Guyana. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 180 NM on either side of 11N16W 10N24W 05N35W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N93W in the southwestern corner of the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in general. A surface ridge passes through northern Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to a Mexico 1021 MB high pressure center that is near 24N98W, to 19N97W near the Mexico coast. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... MVFR...KMDJ. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Patterson. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Biloxi. ALABAMA: LIFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. Light rain in the Key West metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow moves away from Honduras, in order to cover the area that is to the south of the line that runs from the coastal areas of Quintana Roo of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 20N83W 16N76W, to the Peninsula de la Guajira of Colombia. Upper level S to SE wind flow covers much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas to Cuba along 78W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N northward to 24N in the Straits of Florida between the Bahamas and northwestern Cuba. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.08 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow from an inverted trough is present across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR. Few cumulonimbus clouds are being reported in Barahona, Santo Domingo, and La Romana. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day one will start with cyclonic wind flow from an inverted trough. the trough will move northwestward, bringing S wind flow for the rest of day one. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the area during day two, as an anticyclonic circulation center moves across the area during the entire day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB and for 700 MB shows that broad SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad cyclonic wind flow from an upper level inverted trough spans the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean that is to the south of the line that runs from 20N70W to 27N77W, to the east coast of Florida near 28N. A surface trough is between the Bahamas and Florida. An upper level trough also passes through 32N72W to 28N74W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N northward from 67W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 70W. A 1027 MB high pressure center is near 34N44W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT