000 AXNT20 KNHC 191740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis from 14N47W to 02N43W, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a low amplitude 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields. SSMI total precipitable water imagery also shows a very moist area around the wave. Isolated moderate convection is west of the wave axis from 10N-13N between 47W-54W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis from 22N65W to 07N68W, moving westward at 25-30 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields, and is accompanied by a modest surge of moisture. Isolated moderate convection is east of the wave axis over the Leeward Islands from 13N-17N between 60W-63W. Scattered moderate convection is over the northern portion of the wave from 20N-25N between 64W-73W. A tropical wave is over Central America and the Eastern Pacific with axis from 21N87W to 09N89W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded in 700 mb trough, and is in a surge of deep moisture that covers the Eastern Pacific. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are east of the wave axis over the W Caribbean, and Central America from 11N-17N between 82W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 17N16W and continues to a 1012 mb low near 16N20W to 10N30W to 08N39W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 03N44W and continues to the coast of South America near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the monsoon trough from 05N-13N between 15W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends along 30N from N Florida to E Texas. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to 17N92W. 10-20 kt winds are over the Gulf with strongest winds over the central Gulf. The base of an upper level ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with easterly flow and considerable upper level moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over most of the Gulf to include the northern Gulf States, Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect in 24 hours for the surface trough to move west with additional convection. Also expect surface ridging to remain over the northern Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over Central America and another wave is over the eastern Caribbean. See above. 10-25 kt winds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. An upper level low is currently over the NW Caribbean near 18N84W contributing to isolated moderate convection over Cuba, the NW Caribbean, and Yucatan Peninsula. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical waves to move west with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over southern Hispaniola. Expect more showers and isolated thunderstorms with diurnal heating and low-level moisture advection due to the tropical wave over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical waves is over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Patches of scattered moderate convection are over the western Atlantic west of 65W to include the Bahamas due to a tropical wave and a surface trough from 29N79W to 21N71W. A large 1031 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 35N44W producing fair weather. Expect the tropical wave and the monsoon trough to be the dominate features in the tropical Atlantic over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA