000 AXNT20 KNHC 191051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 14N43W 01N42W, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 13N between 45W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 15N between 59W and 62W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica southward between 71W and 85W. A separate area of upper level NE wind flow is moving across Central America from Nicaragua southward. The monsoon trough is along 08N74W in Colombia beyond 09N86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 16N between 78W and 85W, in the coastal waters from Panama to Honduras. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 15N23W, and 09N38W. The ITCZ continues from 09N38W to 05N43W and 04N50W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 60 NM on either side of 11N16W 09N21W, and within 60 NM on either side of 09N24W 06N30W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 25N northward from 90W westward. A smaller and more localized area of anticyclonic wind flow also was in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 20N97W. Upper level NE and NW wind flow covers much of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. This wind flow is part of a larger area of overall cyclonic wind flow that also covers parts of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to the southwest of the line that runs from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Keys. A surface ridge passes through Louisiana into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... MVFR...KSPR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: light rain in Bay City. LIFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Amelia/Lake Palourd and in Port Fourchon. MISSISSIPPI and ALABAMA: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern corner of the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N northward from 80W westward, and from 17N northward from Hispaniola to 80W. Middle level to upper level SE wind flow covers the area that is from 70W eastward. This wind flow is part of the larger-scale inverted trough that is moving through the area. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.19 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level to upper level SE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Broad cyclonic wind flow from an upper level inverted trough spans the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward between 57W and 80W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: few low level clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 19/0000 UTC: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santo Domingo and La Romana: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Punta Cana: few low level clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago: few low level clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Puerto Plata: rainshowers and thunder. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NE to E wind flow will move across the area during day one. Day two consists of an inverted trough that is to the south of Hispaniola at the start of day two, moving northwestward. SE wind flow will cover the area for most of day two. Day two will end with anticyclonic wind flow spreading across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB and for 700 MB shows that broad SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad cyclonic wind flow from an upper level inverted trough spans the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward between 57W and 80W. A surface trough is along 69W/70W, from 21N to 29N, based on surface observations. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 20N to 23N between 67W and 73W in the southeastern Bahamas. Isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 63W and 80W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is about 600 NM to the west of Morocco. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A 1030 MB high pressure center is near 35N45W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT