000 AXNT20 KNHC 182332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis from 14N36W to 02N37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields. SSMI total precipitable water imagery also shows a very moist area around the wave. Isolated moderate convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 02N-10N between 33W-41W. A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis from 21N56W to 07N55W, moving westward at 25-30 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields, and is accompanied by a modest surge of moisture. Isolated moderate convection is inland from 05N-07N between 53W-59W. Scattered showers are elsewhere from 12N-15N between 56W-59W. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis from 19N82W to 05N84W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in 700 mb trough, and is in a surge of deep moisture that covers the SW Caribbean Sea. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are over the SW Caribbean, and Central America from Panama through Honduras from 06N-17N between 79W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 15N17W and continues to 08N30W to 05N40W. The ITCZ begins near 05N40W and continues to the coast of South America near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of west Africa from 07N-11N between 12W-18W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 21W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends along 30N from N Florida to E Texas. Gentle breeze winds from the SE cover the Gulf. The base of an upper level ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with easterly flow and considerable upper level moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over most of the Gulf to include the northern Gulf States, Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect in 24 hours for a surface trough to form in the Bay of Campeche with additional convection. Also expect surface ridging to remain over the northern Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. See above. The surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong breeze tradewinds over the central Caribbean. A small upper level low is currently over the SW Caribbean near 11N81W. Another upper level low is centered over W Cuba near 21N81W. The latter upper level low is contributing to scattered moderate convection over Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over Hispaniola due to diurnal heating, low-level moisture, and the upper level low over Cuba. Expect similar convection over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Patches of scattered showers are over the western Atlantic west of 60W to include the Bahamas. A large 1030 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 36N45W producing fair weather. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate features in the tropical Atlantic over the next 48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA