000 AXNT20 KNHC 181107 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 707 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 17N southward, moving westward about 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from 03N to 10N between 30W and 40W, possibly including some ITCZ-related precipitation also. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 12N between 54W and 55W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 13N southward between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond northwestern Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 73W and 75W. Scattered to numerous strong from 10N to 14N between coastal Colombia and coastal Nicaragua. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 15N southward from 75W westward. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 14N17W, to 11N20W, to 08N30W, and 06N40W. The ITCZ is along 06N40W 05N52W in French Guiana. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 08N between 11W and 20W. Isolated moderate from 03N to 08N between 20W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Some cyclonic wind flow remains in the coastal waters of Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is inland in Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the area that is to the east and southeast of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend to the northwestern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to the northwest of the line that runs from the middle Texas Gulf Coast to the Yucatan Peninsula. Numerous strong within a 30 NM radius of 19N95W, near a diurnal surface trough that is in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. that is between Florida and Texas. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow also covers the easternmost part of the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 18N to 19N between 91W and 92W, in comparatively broad surface low pressure/with a transient and diurnal surface trough. A surface ridge passes through: the Florida Big Bend, to 27N92W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 17N97W in Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR...NONE. IFR...NONE. MVFR...KBBF and KMDJ. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Alice. LOUISIANA: IFR in Patterson. MVFR in Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. Key West: Rain and thunder. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern corner of the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N northward from the Windward Passage westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. This wind flow is in the area of the monsoon trough and the 82W/83W tropical wave. Scattered to numerous strong convective precipitation is in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.02 in Bermuda. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level northerly wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. An upper level inverted trough is on top of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 17/2300 UTC: scattered cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 18/0000 UTC: broken low level clouds/MVFR. Santo Domingo and La Romana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Punta Cana: Few cumulonimbus, VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago: scattered low level clouds/VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N wind flow will transition into part cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough/part E to SE wind flow to the north of the inverted trough, for day one. Day two will start with E to SE wind flow, and then it will become cyclonic again with the same inverted trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE to E wind flow will transition into SE wind flow by the end of day one. SE wind flow will cover the area for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day one will consist of NE wind flow for the first half of day one, followed by an inverted trough for the rest of day one. with NE wind flow at the end of day one. Day two will start with SE wind flow. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level inverted trough cuts across the Bahamas. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 20N northward from 70W westward. A middle level to upper level inverted trough cuts across the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 22N between 60W and 64W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 60W and 70W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is about 650 NM to the west of Morocco. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the line that passes through 32N21W 28N26W 26N40W, and 25N50W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT