000 AXNT20 KNHC 172328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis from 17N32W to 04N32W, moving westward at 20-25 kt. This wave is embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields. SSMI total precipitable water imagery also shows a very moist area around the wave. Isolated moderate convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 02N-10N between 25W-38W. A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis from 19N39W to 04N40W, moving westward at 25-30 kt. This wave is embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields, and is accompanied by a modest surge in moisture. Scattered moderate convection is inland from 04N-07N between 53W-57W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis from 17N79W to 05N72W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb trough and is in a surge of deep moisture that covers the southern Caribbean Sea. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are over the SW Caribbean, and Central America from Panama through Nicaragua from 04N-14N between 76W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 14N17W and continues to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 07N34W and continues to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends along 30N from N Florida to E Texas. Gentle breeze winds from the SE cover the Gulf. An upper level high is centered over central Mississippi near 33N90W. Easterly upper level flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with considerable upper level moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over most of the Gulf to include the northern Gulf States, Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect little change in the surface flow and area of convection over the next 24 hours, while the upper level high moves west to eastern Oklahoma. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. See above. The surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong breeze tradewinds over the central Caribbean. A small upper level high is currently over the SW Caribbean near 13N79W. An upper level low is centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N67W with axis extending NW to the northern Bahamas. The upper level high is enhancing the convection over the SW Caribbean mentioned with the tropical wave. The upper level low is enhancing scattered moderate convection over Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with convection. Also expect the upper level high to move west to Nicaragua, while the upper level low moves west to eastern Cuba. ...HISPANIOLA... Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over Hispaniola due to diurnal heating, low-level moisture, and the upper level low. Expect similar convection over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Patches of scattered showers are over the western Atlantic west of 64W to include the Bahamas. A large 1032 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 38N45W producing fair weather. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate features in the tropical Atlantic over the next 48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA