000 AXNT20 KNHC 170604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 02N to 12N between 20W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate south of 08N between 40W and 46W, included in the area of ITCZ precipitation. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 09N to 11N between 76W and 78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N19W. The ITCZ is along 08N23W 09N31W 08N39W, to the northeastern coast of Suriname. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 13N southward between Africa and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... The upper level cyclonic circulation center that was in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours has moved inland. It is near 22N100W in Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 90W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 NM of the northwestern part of Cuba from 22N to 24N. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow now covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 90W eastward. A surface ridge extends across Bermuda, to 29N81W, across northern Florida, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 19N96W. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to Alabama: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: Earlier rain in the Panama City metropolitan area has ended. Light rain in Apalachicola. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... A weak upper level cyclonic circulation center encompasses the northwestern corner of Cuba. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow carries over into the Straits of Florida from the Atlantic Ocean, along the northern coastal sections of Cuba. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong between 77W and 80W along the southern coast of Cuba. Upper level SE wind flow covers the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Some of that wind flow eventually becomes anticyclonic as it curves more toward Jamaica and beyond, eastward and northeastward, into the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The rest of the SE wind flow moves into Central America. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.21 in Bermuda, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe. The monsoon trough passes through 07N75W, to 08N81W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 30 NM on either side of 10N80W 12N84W at the coast of southeastern Nicaragua. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is crossing Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N to 19N between 73W and 74W, in the Canal dE la Gonave. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 16/2300 UTC...scattered towering cumulus clouds/VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 17/0000 UTC: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo: few low level clouds/VFR. La Romana: scattered low level clouds/VFR. Punta Cana: light rain. Santiago: scattered low level clouds/VFR. Puerto Plata: few low level clouds. VFR/NO CEILINGS. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a ridge will extend from Belize to northern sections of Colombia during day one. NW wind flow will cover Hispaniola. An inverted trough will approach Hispaniola from the east. The NW wind flow will change to NE wind flow during the second part of day one. Expect NE to E wind flow for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the area for day one. An inverted trough will move across the area during day two. SE wind flow will move across the area by the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day one will consist of mostly SE wind flow, with NE wind flow at the end of day one. Day two will start with NE wind flow, followed by an inverted trough for the rest of day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center and trough cover the Atlantic Ocean from the area that is about 180 NM to the northeast of Bermuda, to 30N66W, to an inverted trough that is along 29N73W, toward the southeastern Bahamas. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 20N northward from 60W westward. A middle level to upper level inverted trough is about 240 NM to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, eventually extending to 30N62W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 30N between 54W and 60W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is about 1000 NM to the west of Morocco. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N30W to 31N33W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the line that passes through 32N28W 27N40W to 25N55W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1031 MB high pressure center that is near 38N44W, across Bermuda, to 29N81W, across northern Florida, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 19N96W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT