000 AXNT20 KNHC 162329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has an axis that extends from 17N20W to 04N20W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields. SSMI total precipitable water imagery also shows a very moist area west of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 18W-21W. Elsewhere a large area of scattered showers are from 04N-16N between 17W-25W. A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic has an axis that extends from 17N39W to 04N40W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields, and is accompanied by a modest surge in moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 37W-40W. This convection may also be associated with the ITCZ. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean has an axis that extends from 16N72W to 05N72W, moving westward at 20 kt. This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb troughing and is in a surge of deep moisture that covers the far southern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is mainly inland over Venezuela and Colombia from 06N-11N between 68W-75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 09N19W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 08N22W and continues to 07N39W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave near 07N42W and continues to the coast of South America near 06N54W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 25W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a western Atlantic high at 31N68W across N Florida, to the northeastern Texas Coast. Gentle breeze winds cover the Gulf. An upper low is centered over the SW Gulf near 23N96W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over most of the Gulf to include the NE Gulf States, Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect little change in the surface flow and area of convection over the next 24 hours, while the upper level low moves west into Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. The surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong breeze tradewinds over the south central Caribbean. A large upper high is currently just north of N Colombia near 14N75W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,Jamaica, and Cuba. Elsewhere clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the SW Caribbean, and Central America from Panama to Guatemala. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with convection. Also expect the upper level high to move west towards Central America. ...HISPANIOLA... Clusters of isolated moderate convection are over Hispaniola due to diurnal heating and low-level moisture. Expect similar convection Sunday afternoon and evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. A 1022 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 31N68W. Another large 1030 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 38N44W. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is over the western Atlantic near 28N73W with scattered showers. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate features in the tropical Atlantic over the next 48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA