000 AXNT20 KNHC 161745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis extending from 18N40W to 04N39W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed over the southern part of the wave mainly south of 07N between 36W-41W. A tropical wave is moving across the south-central Caribbean with axis 16N68W to 05N69W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 11N between 66W-74W affecting portions of Venezuela and Colombia. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal Africa reaching the eastern Atlantic near 12N17W to 14N30W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave 07N40W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the Monsoon Trough between 18W-25W while isolated showers are observed within 50 nm north of the ITCZ between 50W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across northern Florida and into the northern Gulf waters. With this, light to gentle easterly winds prevail across the basin. An upper-level low is centered over the Bay of Campeche. A diffluent flow prevails north of this low enhancing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters north of 25N. Expect within the next 24 hours for the upper-level low to move west across eastern Mexico. Convection will continue across the northern waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the SE Caribbean. See the section above for details. The surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong tradewinds over the S-central Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon/evening hours due to diurnal heating and low-level moisture. This scenario will repeat on Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. A surface ridge extends across most of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the western Atlantic near 31N70W and a 1029 mb high near 38N44W. A weakness in the ridge was analyzed as a frontal boundary starting as a stationary front from 31N54W to 28N44W to 30N38W then as a cold front from 30N38W to 32N33W. Isolated showers are within 50 nm of the fronts. Expect within the next 24 hours for the frontal boundary to remain stationary while weakening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA