000 AXNT20 KNHC 160605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 04N to 11N between 30W and 40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward between 62W and 70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N15W, to 10N28W and 08N35W. The ITCZ is along 07N38W 07N50W 08N53W, to 07N59W in coastal sections of Guyana. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 06N to 12N between 15W and 22W, and from 06N to 08N between 42W and 52W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward between Africa and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N96W in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico. One trough extends from the cyclonic center to the Texas/Louisiana border. A second trough extends eastward, into the northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the waters that are along the southern coast of Cuba, toward southeastern Cuba. Convective precipitation: numerous strong in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and within a 30 NM radius of 20N91W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 95W eastward in the Gulf of Mexico, and off the northwestern coast of Cuba. A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1020 MB high pressure center that is near 30N74W, across northern Florida to 28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico, toward the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA: LIFR at the Hammond Northshore Regional Airport. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR at the Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport. Alabama: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: IFR in Crestview. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 18N to 19N between 72W and 73W. Isolated moderate in the waters that are between Haiti, Jamaica, and southeastern Cuba. The southwest wind flow is part of a comparatively larger area of broad cyclonic wind flow that covers the Caribbean Sea from the border of Honduras and Nicaragua beyond Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 16/0000 UTC...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 16/0000 UTC: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will consist of SW to W wind flow at the start, followed by NW to W wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center, that is in the central Caribbean Sea, will be moving westward during day one. Day two will consist of NW to N, and then N to NE wind flow, as an inverted trough approaches from the east. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that broad NE wind flow will move across the area for the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day one will consist of an inverted trough moving across the area. Day two will consist of E to SE wind flow. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in Guadeloupe. The monsoon trough passes through the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia near 08N77W, through Panama near 09N80W, beyond 10N86W in Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 07N to 09N between 74W and 76W, and from the coast of Panama to 11N between 79W and 80W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward between 75W and the coast of Nicaragua. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the Bahamas northward from 66W westward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to the northwest of the line that passes through 32N57W 26N68W 24N75W, and to the north of the Bahamas. An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N36W to 29N40W, and beyond 32N55W, to a cyclonic circulation center that is near 33N57W. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N35W to 27N46W and 32N54W. The front becomes stationary from 32N54W to a 1020 MB low pressure center that is near 34N57W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the line that passes through 32N33W 26N47W beyond 32N54W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 MB high pressure center that is near 35N24W to 27N38W. Another surface ridge extends from a 1022 MB high pressure center that is near 30N56W, to a 1020 MB high pressure center that is near 30N74W, across northern Florida to 28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico, toward the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT