000 AXNT20 KNHC 152322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic has an axis that extends from 17N32W to 04N33W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields, and is accompanied by a modest surge in moisture. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 32W-40W. This convection may also be associated with the ITCZ. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean has an axis that extends from 15N64W to 05N64W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb troughing and is in a surge of deep moisture that covers the far southern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is over a large area from 03N-12N between 56W-69W to include northern Venezuela. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 10N32W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 09N36W and continues to 09N50W to South America near 08N60W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 13W-20W, and from 06N-09N between 40W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida, to the northeastern Texas Coast. Gentle breeze winds cover the Gulf. An upper low is centered over the SW Gulf near 22N94W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over most of the Gulf E of 95W to include the NE Gulf States, Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Little change is forecast for the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. See above. The surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong breeze tradewinds over the south central Caribbean. An upper low is currently just south of western Cuba near 21N82W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the N Caribbean north of 17N west of 70W to include Cuba and the NW Caribbean. An upper level high is centered over the NE Caribbean near 18N64W with strong subsidence. Elsewhere clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the SW Caribbean, and Central America from Costa Rica to Belize. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with convection. Also expect the upper level low to move west to the SE Gulf of Mexico. ...HISPANIOLA... Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over Hispaniola. Expect a gradual decrease in convection over the next 24 hours as the upper low moves west from the region and the tropical wave slips south of the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. A 1020 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 30N74W. Another 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 29N56W. A cold front has dipped over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 28N44W to 31N52W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. Another 1021 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 32N29W. Expect the cold front to move slowly to the east over the next 24 hours with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA