000 AXNT20 KNHC 151146 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 30W from 9N-19N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough/low as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moderate moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 56W/57W south of 15N to the coast of South America moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of deep moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Wave is enhancing the activity associated with the ITCZ. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W and continues south of the Cape Verde Islands along 13N25W 10N32W to 7N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N48W to east of the tropical wave near 8N56W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-56W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-8N between 31W-41W and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 49W-56W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 120 nm along the coast of Africa between 7N-14N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough extends from the upper low in the north Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel to a second upper low near 24N94W continuing to the coast near the Texas/Mexico border. An upper ridge is over the southeast CONUS near the Florida/ Georgia/Alabama border. This is producing a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N between 89W-94W with isolated showers/thunderstorms north of 25N east of 87W. The diurnal surface trough extends from 22N91W to over south Mexico near 18N94W generating isolated showers and thunderstorms within 75/90 nm west of the surface trough. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida to northeast Texas. The surface ridge will persist through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper low is centered near 20N81W and extends a trough axis west through the Yucatan Channel to over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper low covers the Caribbean west of 72W while an upper ridge anchored near 15N65W covers the remainder of the Caribbean this morning. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 19N between 73W-84W including portions of Haiti and Cuba. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Costa Rica along 9N/10N generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N between 77W-83W. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean tonight and into the central Caribbean late Saturday/ early Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over portions of Haiti and moving west away from the island, leaving clear skies across the Dominican Republic. The upper ridge over the east Caribbean will shift west and dominate the Caribbean basin by early Sunday. Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and Saturday. The tropical wave entering the Caribbean tonight could bring more showers and thunderstorms to the island later in the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper low in the north Caribbean covers most of the west Atlantic and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles between 73W-81W with isolated showers and thunderstorms from 23N-30N between 68W-80W. An upper trough north of the discussion area is supporting a cold front that dips south into the central Atlantic through 32N38W to 30N45W then northwest beyond 32N51W. Isolated showers are possible along the frontal boundary. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic this morning. A surface ridge extends through 32N29W south of the above front to a 1024 mb high near 29N51W, then westward across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will gradually shift north of the area late in the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW