000 AXNT20 KNHC 150540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 28W from 8N-19N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough/low as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moderate moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 55W south of 15N to the coast of South America moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of deep moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Wave is enhancing the activity associated with the ITCZ. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 20N16W and continues across the Cape Verde Islands along 9N31W to 8N38W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N45W to east of the tropical wave near 5N53W then resumes west of the wave near 7N55W to South America near 6N68W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-8N between 29W-40W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 6N-11N between 46W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough extends from the upper low in the northwest Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Mexico near 25N97W. An upper ridge is over the southeast CONUS near the Florida/Georgia/Alabama border. This is producing a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N east of 93W. The diurnal surface trough has developed inland over the Yucatan and at 15/0300 UTC extends from 21N91W to over south Mexico near 18N92W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 21N east of 93W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida to northeast Texas. The surface ridge will persist through the weekend. The diurnal surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper low is centered near 20N80W and extends a trough axis west through the Yucatan Channel to over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper low covers the Caribbean west of 71W while an upper ridge anchored near 14N64W covers the remainder of the Caribbean tonight. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are inland and along the immediate coast of Hispaniola west of 70W and within 90 nm along the south and west coasts of Cuba. An upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends across south Mexico to over the Gulf of Honduras and is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 20N west of 86W to inland over the Yucatan. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama in the east Pacific region generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N between 77W-83W. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Winds will be strongest along the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Friday and into the central Caribbean Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are inland and along the immediate coasts of the island west of 70W. The upper ridge over the east Caribbean will shift west and dominate the Caribbean basin by Saturday night. Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday. The tropical wave entering the Caribbean Friday could bring more showers and thunderstorms to the island later in the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper low in the northwest Caribbean is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles between 71W-80W. An upper trough north of the discussion area is supporting a cold front that dips south into the central Atlantic through 32N39W to 30N45W then northwest beyond 32N51W. Isolated showers are possible along the frontal boundary. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic tonight. A surface ridge extends through 32N27W south of the above front to a 1023 mb high near 29N53W, then westward to a weak 1020 mb high near 29N73W, continuing west across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will gradually move north of the area late in the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds will develop Friday along the north coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the Windward Passage, then continue during the late afternoon and evening hours through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW