000 AXNT20 KNHC 142343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic has an axis that extends from near 19N25W to 07N27W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields and is accompanied by a modest surge in moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 26W-29W. The convection may also be associated with the monsoon trough in the area. A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic has an axis that extends from near 14N53W to 05N54W, moving westward at around 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb troughing and is near the leading edge of a surge of deep moisture. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 50W-60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 20N16W and continues to 15N24W to 09N30W to 08N36W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 08N54W to South America near 06N58W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 20W-24W, from 06N-09N between 30W-38W, and from 05N-10N between 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida, through a 1019 mb high centered near 29N89W, and westward to the northeastern Texas Coast. Gentle winds cover the north central Gulf. Mainly moderate SE winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. An upper low is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N95W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the E Gulf E of 93W to include Florida, and the NE Gulf States. Little change is forecast over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressures over Colombia supports moderate to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean. Mainly moderate trades cover the remainder of the Caribbean. An upper low is currently just south of central Cuba near 21N79W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the N Caribbean north of 17N west of 70W to include Cuba and the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is over the S Caribbean south of 12N between 60W-84W to include northern South America. Isolated moderate convection is over Central America from Costa Rica to Belize. Expect over the next 24 hours for winds to pulse from fresh to strong over the south central Caribbean tonight. The upper low will move westward with isolated to scattered thunderstorms continuing over the northwest Caribbean. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean late Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over Hispaniola. Expect scattered thunderstorms to continue through Friday with a gradual decrease in coverage as the upper low moves away from the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Persistent ridging dominates the majority of our Atlantic area of discussion from 20N-30N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 28N74W and a 1024 mb high centered near 29N51W. A frontal system is north of the area from 31N-34N between 37W-73W. This frontal system will move east and remain north of the area. Elsewhere, two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA