000 AXNT20 KNHC 141119 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23W from 11N-18N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides the 700 mb trough/low as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moderate moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 49W/50W from 7N-15N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of deep moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 10N- 12N between 45W-52W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 10N26W to 8N34W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N48W to South America near 7N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 6N-9N between 21W-27W and from the ITCZ to 10N between 38W-42W. Clusters of similar convection are from 10N-12N between 17W-20W, 6N-8N between 27W-31W, from 3N-5N between 42W-47W, and south of 12N to the coast of South America and the ITCZ between 54W-63W including the Windward Islands. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of upper lows dominate the north Gulf centered near 28N93W and 26N87W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 24N east of 86W and within 60 nm along the north Gulf coast between Pensacola, Florida and the Louisiana/Texas border. An upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is enhancing the activity associated with the diurnal surface trough that extends from 21N93W to to over Mexico near 17N93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 20N west of the surface trough and within 60 nm along the coast of Mexico from 20N-21N. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida to east Texas. The surface ridge will persist into the weekend. The diurnal surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge over the south Gulf of Mexico covers the northwest Caribbean west of 87W. A broad upper low centered near 20N77W and covers the southwest Atlantic and dominates the remainder of the Caribbean. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-20N between 69W-83W, including Haiti. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N74W then across Panama near 9N80W and Costa Rica near 9N83W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 10N between Colombia and Costa Rica. Saharan dust and dry air remain over the Caribbean leaving the remainder of the area under clear skies again this morning. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean into the weekend. Winds will be strongest along the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean late Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to over Haiti and within 60 nm along the south coast of the Dominican Republic, leaving the remainder of the island under clear skies. Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next few days. The tropical wave entering the Caribbean late Friday could bring more showers and thunderstorms to the island later in the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic again this morning. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high northeast of the Azores along 32N34W to a 1023 mb high near 29N46W, then westward to a weak 1020 mb high near 28N70W, continuing west across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will gradually move north of the area late in the weekend. Expect fresh to locally strong winds along the north coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW