000 AXNT20 KNHC 140535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic is analyzed along 22W/23W from 6N-20N moving west near 15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave precedes the 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and the surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 49W/50W from 5N-16N moving west-southwest near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 10N-13N between 45W-51W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 10N23W to 9N33W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N41W 7N47W to 8N53W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are south of the monsoon trough to 6N between 20W-27W and within 75/90 nm of a line from 7N50W to 10N57W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 4N-10N between 33W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of upper lows dominate the north Gulf centered near 27N95W and 25N87W generating isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 25N east of 90W. An upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 45 nm along the coast of Mexico south of 20N west of 93W. The diurnal surface trough has returned tonight and extends from over the Yucatan near 21N88W into the Bay of Campeche to over south Mexico near 18N93W. The last visible satellite imagery showers Saharan dust and dry air over the southwest Gulf, limiting any shower activity associated with the diurnal surface trough. Evening showers/thunderstorms that developed inland over Cuba have moved into the Gulf waters within 60 nm along the coast of Cuba between 81W-85W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida through a 1019 mb high near 27N86W then continuing to east Texas. The surface ridge will persist into the weekend. The diurnal surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge over the south Gulf of Mexico covers the northwest Caribbean west of 84W. A broad upper trough covers the southwest Atlantic and the remainder of the Caribbean. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 15N between 72W-87W, including Haiti and the south coast of Cuba. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N74W then across Panama near 9N78W and Costa Rica near 9N83W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 10N between Colombia and Costa Rica. Saharan dust and dry air remain over the Caribbean leaving the remainder of the area under clear skies again tonight. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the central and southwest Caribbean into the weekend. A tropical wave will enter the southeast Caribbean on Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to over Haiti while skies are clear across the Dominican Republic tonight. Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next few days. A tropical wave entering the Caribbean Friday could bring more showers and thunderstorms to the island late in the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic again tonight. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high over the Azores along 32N38W then westward along 26N57W to a weak 1021 mb high near 29N73W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will gradually move north of the area late in the weekend. Expect fresh to locally strong winds along the north coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and early evening hours through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW