000 AXNT20 KNHC 131104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning...A gale warning has gone into effect for the south-central Caribbean along the coast of Colombia. This continue through this afternoon. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 44W/45W from 8N-17N with a weak 1013 mb low along the wave near 11N, all moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 15N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 44W-47W. Tropical wave is inland over the Yucatan along 88W/89W south of 21N to over the east Pacific region moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a 700 mb trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection in the Caribbean basin. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 13N19W to 9N30W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N44W 8N49W to the coast of South America near 8N59W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of a line from 7N21W to inland over Africa near 10N14W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 8N-12N between 47W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cutoff upper low dominates the north Gulf centered near 27N87W generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 26N-30N east of 88W. An upper ridge that covers the northwest Caribbean extends over the south Gulf of Mexico is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm along the coast of Mexico south of 21N west of 95W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across north/central Florida through a 1020 mb high near 28N82W then continuing to northeast Texas. The surface ridge will persist through Friday. The diurnal surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning stating again tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over Guatemala covering the northwest Caribbean and the south Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough extends from the west-central Atlantic across Hispaniola to the north coast of Colombia covering the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-18N between 70W-77W, including east Jamaica. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W along 10N79W then across Panama and Costa Rica near 9N83W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms southwest of a line from Colombia near 9N76W to Nicaragua near 12N84W. Saharan dust and dry air are seen on the last visible satellite imagery, leaving the Caribbean east of 80W under clear skies again this morning. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. Winds have increased to near gale force with frequently gusts to gale force along the northwest coast of Colombia till early this afternoon. These near gale force winds will return tonight. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies are clear across the island this morning. Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge over the Florida peninsula is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm along the coast of Florida between 25N-29N. An upper trough extends across the central and west Atlantic into the Caribbean supporting a surface trough that extends from 28N56W to 23N63W with isolated showers possible within 75 nm of the surface trough. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the Atlantic again this morning. A surface ridge covers the west Atlantic west of the above surface trough and anchored by a 1021 mb high near 27N71W and extending west into the Gulf of Mexico. A second broad surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic east of the above surface trough anchored by a 1027 mb high in the northeast Atlantic near 34N32W and a ridge axis extending to 24N57W. This surface ridge will persist through the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW