000 AXNT20 KNHC 121722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic with axis from 17N42W to a 1013 mb low near 11N42W, moving W near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave position was based on a 700 mb inverted trough depicted in the global models. A surge of moisture follows this wave as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection prevails across the low center. The lack of deep convection is associated to the abundant Saharan dust in the environment of this wave. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis from 20N83W to 08N84W, moving W near 20-25 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a 700 mb trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. This feature combined with a diffluent flow aloft supports scattered moderate convection from 10N-21N between 81W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N27W. The ITCZ begins at this point and continues to 08N40W then resumes W of a tropical wave near 10N44W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave and surface low, isolated convection is observed within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is centered over NE Mexico while another center is located over the NE Gulf waters near 28N87W. These features are supporting isolated moderate convection across the whole basin. At the surface, a ridge extends across the Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the western Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the whole area. Expect a similar weather pattern through the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the southern portion of the basin S of 12N between 76W-83W due to the presence of the Monsoon Trough. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the majority of the basin except between 70W-80W, where fresh to strong winds are depicted in scatterometer data. These winds are induced by a tight pressure gradient between the high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressures over the southern Caribbean and South America. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving W with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies remain clear across the island at this time. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave and low are moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting isolated showers across the far W Atlantic mainly W of 76W. To the E; a surface trough extends from 28N54W to 25N55W with no significant convection. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high near 28N67W and a 1028 mb high near 32N32W. Expect for the wave and low to continue moving W with little convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA