000 AXNT20 KNHC 112349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 18N43W to 05N46W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave placement corresponds well with a 700 mb trough axis. Satellite imagery shows Saharan dust and dry air prevailing along most of the wave's area. The wave is thus mostly void of convection. A 1012 mb low has developed however west of the wave axis near 10N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm radius of this low. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending from 20N75W to 09N76W, moving W at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a moist environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. This wave shows an outflow boundary traversing eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua with isolated moderate convection. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-22N between 75W-82W to include Jamaica and E Cuba. A tropical wave is over western Honduras and the Eastern Pacific with axis from 16N86W to 03N87W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. This wave coincides with a broad 700 mb inverted trough mostly over the Eastern Pacific. A large area of scattered moderate convection is over the Eastern Pacific. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N17W to 10N22W to 10N25W. The ITCZ extends from 10N25W to a 1012 mb low at 10N40W to the coast of South America near 06N55W. Aside from convection associated with the low, isolated moderate convection is from 06N-12N between 12W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N84W. Gentle breeze to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted on scatterometer imagery going around the high. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N87W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly inland over the north Gulf States from Louisiana to Florida N of 30N. Isolated moderate convection is inland over the Florida Peninsula, and W Cuba. Isolated moderate convection is also over the Bay of Campeche S of 23N. Expect over the next 24 hours for more convection to advect to the Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please refer to the above section for more details. 10-25 knot tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is over Panama, and Costa Rica. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the SW Caribbean. Expect the tropical wave along 75W to be the dominate feature over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are now over western Hispaniola. Expect over the next 24 hours for these showers to move west towards Cuba, while a new batch of showers advects over eastern Hispaniola from the Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main features across the basin are the tropical wave and tropical low. See above. Isolated moderate convection is over the northern Bahamas from 24N-28N between 76W-80W. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the Atlantic waters anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 28N58W and a 1025 mb high near 33N30W. In the upper levels a small area of upper level diffluence is producing scattered moderate convection north of Puerto Rico from 22N-24N between 64W-66W. Expect more convection over the northern Bahamas and the western Atlantic over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa