000 AXNT20 KNHC 111717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 17N38W to 06N41W, moving W at around 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted in the global models and is along the leading edge of a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted due to abundant Saharan dust in the area. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis from 19N73W to 10N74W, moving W near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. A 700 mb trough is depicted in the global models in this area and a surge of moisture is noted on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. An upper-level low centered S of eastern Cuba combined with this wave is supporting isolated convection along the northern portion of it mainly N of 15N between 72W-77W affecting portions of SW Hispaniola and eastern Jamaica. A tropical wave is moving across Central America with axis extending from 17N85W to 09N85W, moving W at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincided with a broad 700 mb inverted trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a moderate surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the southern portion of the wave mainly S of 13N between 82W-89W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical Atlantic near 12N17W to 12N26W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 10N39W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N42W to 06W56W. Isolated showers prevail S of the boundaries between 18W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is centered over the NE Gulf supporting isolated convection across the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a ridge extends across the basin anchored over the western Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the Gulf. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the area. Please refer to the section above for details. The proximity of the Monsoon Trough is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 78W-84W. The tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean as noted in scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Expect during the next 24 hours for the waves to continue moving W with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... The combination of the upper-level low over the central Caribbean and the tropical wave currently moving across the Windward Passage will give the island the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting isolated convection across the W Atlantic mainly W of 75W. To the E, a surface trough extends from 24N64W to 20N65W. Isolated convection is observed along this feature. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 28N58W. A similar weather pattern will continue through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA