000 AXNT20 KNHC 111100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 38W/39W from 6N-15N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted in the global models and is along the leading edge of a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the east/central Caribbean extends along 68W/69W from 19N to the coast of Venezuela moving west-northwest near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a 700 mb trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 81W/82W from 10N-17N moving west-southwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is shallow and coincided with a 850 mb trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a moderate surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W and continues along 10N19W to 11N26W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 10N31W to east of the tropical wave near 9N37W, then resumes west of the wave near 9N41W to the coast of South America near 6N55W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 90 nm along the coast of southwest Africa south of 8N east of 9W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are within 120 nm of a line from 7N16W to 10N25W, from 6N-9N between 31W-41W, and from 5N-8N between 50W- 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cutoff upper low dominates the Gulf and is centered near 27N87W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 22N-28N east of 89W to the coast of the Florida peninsula and through the Straits of Florida. The diurnal surface trough extends from 22N90W to inland over south Mexico near 18N93W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 21N west of 93W to inland over Mexico and scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms east of the trough to over the Yucatan peninsula. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida and the northern Gulf to the northeast coast of Texas. This is leaving the remainder of the Gulf with fair weather this morning. The surface ridge will persist through Tuesday, then weaken on Wednesday. The diurnal surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cutoff upper low is in the central Caribbean near 16N78W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east from 15N-18N between 70W-76W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica south of the Caribbean but is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean within 60 nm along the coast of Panama, Costa Rica and south Nicaragua south of 12N west of 82W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 10N east of 82W to the coast of Colombia. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, except near gale force winds along the northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. The west Caribbean tropical wave will move across the remainder of the basin through tonight. The east Caribbean tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean today and the west Caribbean by Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies remain mostly clear across the island this morning with some isolated showers and thunderstorms just off the south coast of Haiti. The combination of the upper low over the central Caribbean and the tropical wave in the Mona Passage will give the island possible showers and thunderstorms that will spread east to west across the island through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge is in the southwest Atlantic near 24N72W and is providing difflunce aloft to the west to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 28N to the coast of Cuba west of 77W to the coast of Florida, including the northern most Bahama islands. The north portion of the tropical wave in the east/central Caribbean is now depicted as a surface trough that extends from 25N63W to 20N65W and is clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. An elongated upper low is over the central Atlantic extending from 32N45W to 20N56W supporting a surface trough that extends through 32N40W to 27N48W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 24N-32N between 42W-56W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the Atlantic this morning. A 1025 mb high is in the northeast Atlantic near 33N30W and a 1023 mb high in the central Atlantic near 28N58W and extending a ridge axis west along 27N75W across central Floria into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will persist through the week with a surface high developing near 29N70W by tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW