000 AXNT20 KNHC 110559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 37W/38W from 6N-16N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted in the global models and is along the leading edge of a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 66W/67W from 20N across Puerto Rico to inland over Venezuela moving west- northwest 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a 700 mb trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable water imagery. Activity in the vicinity of this wave is associated with an upper low over the central Caribbean. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 80W from 10N- 20N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is shallow and coincided with a 850 mb trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a moderate surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W and continues along 10N27W to east of the tropical wave near 8N37W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave near 7N41W and continues along 4N47W to the coast of South America near 5N50W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 8N-12N between 19W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cutoff upper low dominates the Gulf and is centered near 26N87W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 45/60 nm of line from 23N88W to 27N86W. The diurnal surface trough inland over the Yucatan peninsula is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 21N east of 92W to inland over the Yucatan and south of 20N west of 92W to inland over south Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida to over the northern Gulf to the northeast coast of Texas. This is leaving the remainder of the Gulf with clear skies tonight. The surface ridge will persist through Tuesday, then weaken on Wednesday. The diurnal surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cutoff upper low is in the central Caribbean near 14N78W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east from 12N-18N between 68W-73W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica south of the Caribbean but is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean within 60 nm along the coast of Costa Rica and Panama west of 80W. The west Atlantic surface ridge coupled with the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, except near gale force winds along the northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. The west Caribbean tropical wave will move across the remainder of the basin through Monday night into Tuesday morning. The east Caribbean tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean Monday and the west Caribbean by Tuesday or early Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have diminished tonight leaving clear skies across the island. The combination of the upper low over the central Caribbean and the approaching tropical wave will give the island showers and thunderstorms that will spread east to west across the island through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper low is over the central Atlantic near 26N49W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N-30N between 45W-55W. Otherwise a broad surface ridge dominates the Atlantic tonight. A 1026 mb high is in the northeast Atlantic near 33N30W extending a ridge axis southwest along 28N40W then west through a 1025 mb high near 28N55W, then along 27N73W across central Floria into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface ridge will persist through the week with a surface high developing near 29N70W Monday evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW