000 AXNT20 KNHC 110001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 16N34W to 06N37W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. Meteosat imagery shows Saharan dust and dry air prevailing along most of the wave's area. Strong deep-layer wind shear is also limiting convection. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 33W-40W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 19N64W to 10N66W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. This wave shows an outflow boundary approaching the ABC Islands. Isolated moderate convection is from 11N-17N between 63W-68W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis from 20N75W to 11N78W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. Shallow moisture prevails behind this wave. Radar imagery shows scattered convection across eastern Cuba between 77W-80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 11N15W to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to the coast of South America near 06N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, isolated moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 14W-33W, and from 05N-08N between 44W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 27N85W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow as noted on scatterometer imagery going around the high. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the eastern Gulf near 27N86W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly inland over the north Gulf States from Louisiana to Florida N of 30N. Isolated moderate convection is inland over the Florida Peninsula, W Cuba, and S Mexico between 90W-96W. Expect over the next 24 hours for convection to advect to the Straits of Florida and S Florida. Also expect more convection to advect to the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please refer to the above section for more details. 10-25 knot tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over N Colombia, W Panama, and Costa Rica. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N89W to 16N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 16N-21N between 87W-90W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the SW Caribbean. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate features over the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are now over eastern Hispaniola. Expect showers and thunderstorms to spread over the entire island during the next 24 hours due to an approaching tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main feature across the basin is the tropical wave. See above. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the Atlantic waters anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N57W and a 1025 mb high near 33N30W. Little change is expected within the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa