000 AXNT20 KNHC 101735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 15N32W to 07N34W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a dry environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. Meteosat imagery show Saharan dust within the wave that along with strong deep-layer wind shear limits the convection to isolated showers S of 09N between 30W-36W. A tropical wave just entered the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 18N62W to 10N64W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture combined with a diffluent environment aloft supports scattered moderate convection from 12N-16N between 62W-67W. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis from 20N74W to 12N76W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show the wave embedded in shallow moisture whereas water vapor imagery show strong subsidence aloft. No significant convection is noticed with this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 11N16W to 10N30W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 08N35W to 06N57W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers are within 120 nm S of both boundaries between 16W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb surface high is centered across the NE Gulf near 27N87W, which provides light variable winds E of 90W. Gentle to moderate return flow dominates elsewhere. An upper-level low prevails across the eastern portion of the basin supporting isolated showers mainly E of 90W. Little change is expected within the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. The pressure gradient between ridging across the Atlantic extending across the northern Caribbean and lower pressures across northern Venezuela and Colombia continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central and SW Caribbean. Generally moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. A mid-level trough centered over Cuba and shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Cuba and its adjacent waters. The proximity of the Monsoon Trough and a diffluent flow aloft support scattered moderate convection S of 10N between 75W-82W. The tropical waves will continue moving W with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Passing showers are across the island and adjacent waters associated with a tropical wave moving over central Caribbean waters. This activity will continue through the day. Drier weather is expected during the next 24 hours as the wave move W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. PLease refer to the section above for details. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the Atlantic waters anchored by a 1026 mb high near 27N51W. This weather pattern will continue during the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA