000 AXNT20 KNHC 091723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 15N24W to 06N29W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. Meteosat imagery show Saharan dust and dry air prevailing along most of the wave's area that along with strong deep-layer wind shear limits the convection to scattered showers S of 08N between 26W-30W. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis extending from 16N64W to 07N54w, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a light to moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture combined with a diffluent environment aloft supports scattered showers from 09N-13N between 53W-58W. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis from 19N68W to 11N71W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. Shallow moisture prevails behind this wave enhancing scattered convection across Puerto Rico and the Eastern portion of the basin mainly E of 68W. A tropical wave is over Central America and EPAC with axis extending from 15N90W to 07N92W, moving W at 10 kt. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support scattered showers affecting portions of Guatemala and the EPAC area between 88W-94W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 20N16W to 08N26W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 06N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is from 05N-08N between 34W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 27N84W. With this, tranquil weather prevails across the majority of the area with a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow as noted in scatterometer data. A diffluent flow aloft combined with low-level moisture is generating isolated convection across the SE Gulf waters affecting portion of South Florida and the Straits mainly S of 28N and E of 83W. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. The pressure gradient between ridging across the Atlantic basin and lower pressure across northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the majority of the central Caribbean between 70W- 80W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the remainder of the basin. A diffluent flow aloft combined with the proximity of the Monsoon Trough over Central America is inducing scattered moderate convection over Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and their adjacent waters S of 14N and W of 80W. Expect within the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving W with convection while the next one will enter the E Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Benign weather prevails across the island at this time. Weather conditions will start to deteriorate as a tropical wave moves over the island today. Showers associated to this wave will persist through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main features across the basin are two tropical waves, which are discussed in the waves section above. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the Atlantic waters anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 34N27W. Little change is expected within the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA