000 AXNT20 KNHC 081739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave exited the African Coast over the past 24 hours with an axis currently extending from near 15N18W to 06N20W. This wave coincides with a surge of deep moisture and 700 mb troughing in model fields. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 16W and 22W. A tropical wave is in the east tropical Atlantic with axis extending from near 13N43W to 03N44W, moving west at around 20 knots over the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a broad moderately moist environment with 700 mb troughing evident in model fields between 40W and 48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 42W and 54W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 17N64W to 07N66W, moving west at 20 to 25 knots over the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in an environment of low to moderate moisture, with Saharan dust evident in Meteosat imagery as well as surface observations across the Windward Islands. The wave is also embedded in an elongated 700 mb trough between 60W and 68W. No deep convection is currently associated with this wave. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending from near 12N81W to 03N82W, moving west at 15 to 20 knots over the last 24 hours. This wave is embedded in an environment of high moisture, and can be tracked for the past couple of days over Venezuela and Colombia in infrared satellite imagery. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are south of 14N and west of 78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 06N27W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 05N42W, continuing west of a tropical wave near 06N46W to 08N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Climatologically persistent surface ridging across the central Atlantic continues to extend westward over the Florida Peninsula through a 1019 mb surface high center near 28N83W and across the northern Gulf coast near Houston, Texas. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds cover the Gulf basin, except for within 180 nm nw of the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A diffluent environment aloft supports isolated thunderstorms east of 91W. Very little change in the synoptic pattern is forecast over the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A persistent tight pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressures over Colombia continues to support fresh to locally strong trades over the majority of the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Aside from convection associated with the southwestern Caribbean tropical wave, the Caribbean is mainly void of convection. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details on this convection. Over the next 24 hours the southwestern Caribbean wave will exit the basin. The eastern Caribbean wave will enter the central Caribbean on Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Surface observations and Meteosat imagery indicate Saharan dust continues over Hispaniola today. This combined with an environment of low to moderate moisture is inhibiting shower and thunderstorm activity. This pattern will persist through much of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad ridge axis extends from a 1026 mb high centered near 34N26W across the central and western Atlantic south of 31N and north of 15N. A weakness in the ridge in the form of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to 28N55W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the trough axis. Elsewhere, two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto