000 AXNT20 KNHC 081033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the tropical central Atlantic with axis near 40W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. The wave is being engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust that along with strong deep layer wind shear in the region limit the convection to isolated showers from 06N-13N between 39W and 44W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 63W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. A low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is associated with the wave. Water vapor imagery show strong subsidence in the vicinity of this wave. Convection is limited to isolated showers E of the wave axis, especially across the Windward Islands. A tropical wave is across the southern Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala with axis near 91W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. A moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is associated with the wave. Isolated showers are off the coast of Belize and in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are inland mainly across southern Mexico and Guatemala. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N22W to 05N38W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered showers are within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough and from 05N-13N between 45W and 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging across the central Atlantic continues to extend westward over the Florida Peninsula and the entire Gulf of Mexico basin. Light to moderate return flow dominates basin-wide. A tropical wave currently along 91W moving W across southern Mexico and northern Central America will likely provide increased probability of scattered showers and tstms across southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche today. Otherwise, no major changes are expected during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between ridging across the SW North Atlc and lower pressure across northern Colombia supports fresh to locally strong trades across the majority of the central and SW Caribbean. Generally moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. In regards of convection, an upper-level elongated low centered near the Bahamas and associated trough extending S across the NW Caribbean support isolated showers along Cuba and adjacent southern waters. Low surface pressure, abundant moisture and a diffluent environment aloft supports scattered heavy showers and tstms along Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters within 120 nm of the coasts. Similar convection is off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the eastern basin enhances showers over the Windward Islands. Next tropical wave will enter the basin Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Mainly dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are across the Island suppressing the development of convection tonight. Stable conditions are expected to prevail the next two days. However, shallow moisture moving across the region along with day-time heating may support the development of showers during the afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main feature across the basin is a tropical wave discussed in the waves section above. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a 1028 mb center of high pres SW of the Azores near 33N27W. A tight pres gradient between this ridge and lower pres inland Africa support fresh to strong N flow within 270 nm off the Mauritania and Western Sahara coasts. Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to persist with the broad surface ridging the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS