000 AXNT20 KNHC 080559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the tropical central Atlantic with axis near 40W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. The wave is being engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust that along with strong deep layer wind shear in the region limit the convection to isolated showers from 02N-13N between 35W and 45W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 62W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. A low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is associated with the wave. Water vapor imagery show strong subsidence in the vicinity of this wave. Convection is limited to isolated showers E of the wave axis, especially across the Windward Islands. A tropical wave is across Central America with axis near 88W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. A moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is associated with the wave. Isolated showers and tstms are within 20 nm off the southern coast of Belize. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are inland mainly across El Salvador and Guatemala. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 07N37W then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N40W to 10N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers are within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough and from 04N-13N between 45W and 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging across the central Atlantic continues to extend westward over the Florida Peninsula and the entire Gulf of Mexico basin. In the Gulf, the ridge is being anchored by a 1020 mb center of high pressure near 27N84W that provides variable light winds in the NE basin. Moderate return flow dominates elsewhere, except within 90 nm off the western Yucatan Peninsula where a heat trough locally tighten the pres gradient to support E-NE fresh wind. A tropical wave currently along 88W moving W across Central America will likely provide increased probability of scattered showers and tstms across southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche Friday. Otherwise, no major changes are expected during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between ridging across the SW North Atlc and lower pressure across northern Colombia supports fresh to locally strong trades across the majority of the central and SW Caribbean. Generally moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. In regards of convection, an upper-level elongated low centered near the Bahamas and associated trough extending S across the NW Caribbean support isolated showers along Cuba and adjacent southern waters. Low surface pressure, abundant moisture and a diffluent environment aloft supports scattered heavy showers and tstms along Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters within 120 nm of the coasts. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the eastern basin enhances showers over the Windward Islands. Next tropical wave will enter the basin Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Mainly dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are across the Island suppressing the development of convection tonight. Stable conditions are expected to prevail the next two days. However, shallow moisture moving across the region along with day-time heating may support the development of showers during the afternoon and early evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main feature across the basin is a tropical wave discussed in the section above. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a 1028 mb center of high pres SW of the Azores near 33N27W. A tight pres gradient between this ridge and lower pres inland Africa support fresh to strong N flow within 270 nm off the Mauritania and Western Sahara coasts. Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to persist with the broad surface ridging the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS