000 AXNT20 KNHC 062329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 14N-04N, moving westward at 15 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb is noted along 30W. Satellite precipitable water imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 16N-05N, moving westward at 20 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb is noted along 50W. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air continues to surround this wave. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N- 12N between 43W-48W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N-09N, moving westward at 15 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb is noted in model guidance in conjunction with this wave. Satellite precipitable water imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate convection is west of the wave axis over Jamaica and E Cuba, from 17N-21N between 75W-79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 08N38W to 10N43W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave near 10N46W to the coast of South America near 06N58W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 36W-44W, and from 08N-10N between 51W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A small 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N85W. 05-10 knot anticyclonic winds are noted around the high. 10-15 knot SE flow is over the remainder of the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over western tip of Cuba. Isolated moderate convection is over S Mississippi, S Alabama, S Georgia, and Florida. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the W Cuba near 22N85W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the convection over the northern Gulf States to move NE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please see above for more details. Scattered moderate convection is inland over N Venezuela, and N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, E Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered north of Hispaniola over the Atlantic near 23N68W enhancing convection. Expect the tropical wave to be the dominate features over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the island due to the tropical wave and upper level diffluence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west of the island, while the upper level low moves northwest to the Bahamas. The net result in 24 hours will be a decrease in precipitation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N58W producing fair weather. Another large 1026 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 32N32W. Expect over the next 24 hours for additional showers over the central Bahamas due to the upper level low. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa